The Case for U.S. Housing
U.S. Single Family Housing significantly lagged post-crisis recoveries compared to equities and commercial real estate. That relative underperformance, plus potential support from pent-up demand, augur well for housing. In our opinion, median income-based measures suggesting that U.S. housing is overvalued are flawed. U.S. housing is NOT a monolithic whole; it is a very heterogeneous asset class. New constructions sit next to 70-year-old homes, across a variety of sizes and price points. Digging deep into local factors (e.g., land supply constraints, income growth of upper middle class) is essential to better understanding and forecasting home prices. We believe housing in Ohio, Illinois, Mississippi, Nevada and New Jersey is undervalued vs. local fundamentals and likely to outperform; while parts of Oregon, Texas, Hawaii and California are relatively overvalued and could lag income growth.